How long would it take?
Put in a sum each month and this says how long it takes to reach your number — at every rate on the
comparison, measured and dated, and then again in today's money. That second answer is the one that
is always missing.
KES 2,000 a month to KES 1,000,000
Each rate here is net of withholding tax and was measured in the last
14 days. Rates that have gone stale are left
out: compounded over a decade, an old reading gives a confident answer about a world that has
moved on.
| Where the money sits | After tax | Time to get there | What it buys by then | In today's money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
364-day Treasury bill
Central Bank of Kenya
|
7.68% | 18 years 10 months | KES 293,298 | 35 years 8 months |
|
182-day Treasury bill
Central Bank of Kenya
|
7.67% | 18 years 10 months | KES 293,075 | 35 years 9 months |
|
91-day Treasury bill
Central Bank of Kenya
|
7.65% | 18 years 10 months | KES 292,690 | 35 years 10 months |
What it buys by then is your target carried back to today at 6.76% inflation: the same shillings, priced in what they will actually get you. In today's money is how long it takes to reach a target of that real size instead — assuming you raise the monthly amount with prices, because holding it fixed for twenty years is itself a cut.
No money market fund is listed yet, so the most common home for a monthly saving habit
is missing from this table. The horizons above are government paper and sacco averages.
What if I buy shares instead?
Nobody can tell you what shares will return, including us — so there is no row for them above.
Put in the return you are assuming and the same arithmetic runs on it. It is your forecast, and
the number it produces is only ever as good as the guess you put in.
Further reading
Rates come from the comparison,
net of withholding tax and on one basis; inflation is the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics' 12-month
rate, shown on the inflation page.
A projection assumes the rate holds for the whole period, and no rate here has ever held for fifteen
years. It answers how long at today's rates, which is a different and more modest question than what
will happen.
Ipahco